Lesson Contents01. Type-well Curve Fundamentals Lesson 1.01: Introduction to Type-well Curves02. Why Are Type-well Curves Important?03. What Happens If Type-well Curves Are Wrong?04. Market Reaction: Stock Price Impact05. Disclaimer and Objectives06. Clarification: Type-well Curve vs Type Curve07. Why are Type-well Curves Important?08. 6 Different Approaches09. Presentation Outline
01. Type-well Curve Fundamentals Lesson 1.01: Introduction to Type-well CurvesHi everybody, my name's Bertrand Groulx and welcome to type-well curve fundamentals.
02. Why Are Type-well Curves Important?Now, why are type-well curves important? Well, they're used to Inform production forecasts, economic evaluations. We use them to scope out plays. We use them to build understanding of production influencing factors like completion parameters or subsurface parameters. But most importantly, we should be focusing on using type-well curves as a vehicle to reduce risk and uncertainty and to justify and support our multi-million dollar decisions.
03. What Happens If Type-well Curves Are Wrong?Now, what happens when a type-well curve is wrong? Well typically, type of curves fall short. It's rare that we exceed our type-well curves. But when we do, it can negatively impact cash flow. So that's going to affect our planning. It's going to affect what we plan to invest that money in operations, things of the sort. It could mean reserve write downs, which reduces corporate value and it very often leads to negative market reactions.
04. Market Reaction: Stock Price ImpactAnd if you don't believe me, it took me all of five minutes to find eight companies where investors did not react well to production guidance shortfalls. And each of these companies with the area circled in red, are when announcements were made that they fell short of production shortfalls. We're talking 50% of corporate value, 70%, 40%. These are really significant things that you need to be concerned about and why you need to have care and attention in the development of your type-well curves.
05. Disclaimer and ObjectivesSo a little disclaimer and a review of our objectives. Now, the content of this presentation is intended to illustrate the complexities associated with type-well curve development. We're using monthly vendor public production data, whether it be Canada or the US, and we're demonstrating analytic techniques that may provide insights when developing type-well curves. Now, these are not the be all do all to end all, these are complementary. They're informative for workflows involving scientific modeling, forecasting tools and economic evaluation tools. The relevance of each topic really depends on what you're trying to accomplish. So we're really equipping you with a toolkit today.
06. Clarification: Type-well Curve vs Type CurveSo let's get some clarity on terminology now. Type-well curves are often referred to as type curves. They are different. I am personally and to use them interchangeably throughout the course of this. So anytime I say type curves, I mean type-well curves, but type curves more properly refer to idealize production plots based on equations and or numerical simulation to which actual production results are compared. Now type-well curves actually use real production data and represent an average production profile for a collection of wells for a specified duration.
07. Why are Type-well Curves Important?Now, why are type-well curves important? Again, they're the foundation of reserves evaluations. They're used for development planning, production performance comparisons. We use them to actually figure out what completion designs are optimal. So completion optimization analysis.
08. 6 Different ApproachesSo why are they important? Because if you don't do them right, you can get very different answers. Here's an example of six different approaches I found at one company, and they're all using the same data from 85 wells. Put that into another perspective. And first of all let's orient you on this chart. This is showing your MCF per day per well. So that's an average profile. And they are time normalized in a variety of fashions. If we look at this from a cumulative revenue versus time perspective, you can see that they vary from $1.5 million dollars to $2 million dollars, that's a $500 thousand dollar difference. Now, if I was a decision maker having a 33% difference in my type-well curves in the first year would make me very concerned. So that's why I want to know as a decision maker how the type of curve was developed.
09. Presentation OutlineSo today, we're gonna go through all of the different chart types that not only are used to present type-well curves, but also support the development of the type curves. We're gonna look at analog selection, which is by far the most important consideration in the process. We're gonna look at a variety of forms of normalization. Look at idealized type-well curves, comparing producing day versus calendar day. Condensing time. We need to consider operational and downtime factors on any idealized type curves. We're gonna look at the concept of survivor bias. We're gonna consider truncation, using sample size cut off so that we can forecast the average. Or we can use auto forecast tools to average the forecasts. Different vehicles for representing the uncertainty associated with a type-well curve. And then we're gonna look at some of the complementary aspects of using auto forecast tools and some of the analysis that they have for us in the development of type-well curves.