Cameron Snow

Geological Risking

10:33 Hours
Oil and gas exploration is a risky business, and it is crucial that oil and gas professionals be able to communicate to stakeholders the range of outcomes that are likely given an exploration prospect or portfolio. This course is designed to provide oil and gas professionals with the background knowledge to confidently perform a risk assessment of an exploration prospect.

Specifically, you will learn:
• The statistics and methods that are necessary to perform a risk assessment
• How to perform apples-to-apples assessments using a risking framework
• Applying Monte Carlo analysis for determining un-risked and risked volumetrics
• Understanding how to approach portfolios of exploration prospects

This course was designed to be equally applicable to both geoscientists, engineers, and planning staff with a broad range of experience. Whether you are an experienced wildcatter or are looking to demystify geological risking numbers, this course is for you.

01-01 – Welcome & Course Outline (16 min.) 
01-02 – Why Is Risking Important? (5 min.)
01-03 – The Basic Idea (5 min.)
01-04 – A Thought Experiment (5 min.)
01-05 – Why Probability Is Hard (7 min.)

02-01 – The Language of Statistics (3 min.)
02-02 – Marginal Probability (2 min.)
02-03 – Joint Probability (3 min.)
02-04 – Conditional Probability (5 min.)
02-05 – Probability of Success vs Failure (7 min.)
02-06 – Probability Distributions (8 min.)
02-07 – PDFs vs CDFs (4 min.)
02-08 – Monte Carlo Analysis (7 min.)
02-09 – Key Takeaways (2 min.)
02-10 – Probability as Related to Risking (3 min.)
02-11 – Data for Property Distributions (7 min.)
02-12 – Identifying Distributions (8 min.)
02-13 – Area Distribution (7 min.)

03-01 – What Is The Hydrocarbon System? (5 min.)
03-02 – Structure / Trap (6 min.)
03-03 – Seal (8 min.)
03-04 – Reservoir (8 min.)
03-05 – Source Rock Presence & Maturity (8 min.)
03-06 – Migration (7 min.)
03-07 – Considerations For Risking (5 min.)
03-08 – Key Takeaways (5 min.)
03-09 – Non-System Risk Categories (8 min.)
03-10 – Risking by Hydrocarbon System Component (5 min.)

04-01 – What Are Risking Frameworks (6 min.)
04-02 – Risking Prospects (7 min.)
04-03 – Milikov’s Risking Framework (8 min.)
04-04 – Risk Tables & Framework For Structure (10 min.)
04-05 – Framework For Seal (8 min.)
04-06 – Framework For Reservoir Presence (8 min.)
04-07 – Framework For Reservoir Deliverability (7 min.)
04-08 – Framework For Source Presence And Maturity (7 min.)
04-09 – Framework For Migration From Source Kitchen (7 min.)
04-10 – Building Your Own Framework (7 min.)
04-11 – Key Takeaways (2 min.)
04-12 – Two Risk Examples (8 min.)

05-01 – De-Risking And Reducing Uncertainty (3 min.)
05-02 – Example 1: Infill Seismic Lines (4 min.)
05-03 – Example 2: Drilling Offset Well (2 min.)
05-04 – Deciding On Further Data Acquisition (7 min.)
05-05 – Common Risks Across a Portfolio (Part 1) (7 min.)
05-06 – Common Risks Across a Portfolio (Part 2) (8 min.)
05-07 – Summary (3 min.)

06-01 – Volumetric Calculations (7 min.)
06-02 – Volumetrics With Ranges (5 min.)
06-03 – Key Takeaways (3 min.)
06-04 – Using Ranges Correctly (7 min.)
06-05 – Monte Carlo For Ranges (7 min.)
06-06 – Summary of Using Ranges (2 min.)

07-01 – Risked Volumes: The Wrong Way (8 min.)
07-02 – Risked Volumes: The Right Way (5 min.)
07-03 – Monte Carlo For Risks (5 min.)
07-04 – Summary Of Risked Volumetrics (2 min.)

08-01 – Example Scenario: Multiple Zones and Shared Risks (5 min.)
08-02 – Shared vs. Independent Risks (6 min.)
08-03 – Example : Shared vs. Independent Risks (6 min.)
08-04 – Which Interpretation is Correct? (Part 1) (9 min.)
08-05 – Which Interpretation is Correct? (Part 2) (8 min.)
08-06 – Calculating Shared Risk (7 min.)
08-07 – Calculating Shared Risk : Best Practice (4 min.)
08-08 – Calculating Shared Risk : The Wrong Way (4 min.)
08-09 – Key Takeaways (4 min.)

09-01 – Evaluating A Portfolio (7 min.)
09-02 – Probability of Success vs Failure (6 min.)
09-03 – Portfolio Shapes and Sizes (8 min.)
09-04 – Evaluating A Portfolio – Creaming Curves (9 min.)
09-05 – Evaluating A Portfolio – In Small Companies (8 min.)
09-06 – Evaluating A Portfolio – Common Risks (9 min.)
09-07 – Evaluating A Portfolio – Post Failure Analysis (9 min.)
09-08 – Summary of Exploration Portfolios (6 min.)

10-01 – Communicating Risk (10 min.)

11-01 – Three Takeaway Messages (5 min.)

12-01- Tools Required (8 min.)
12-02 – Hands On Examples – Overview (4 min.)
12-03 – Hands On Example 1 – Shiraz Metadata (3 min.)
12-04 – Hands On Example 1 – Shiraz Risking (9 min.)
12-05 – Hands On Example 1 – Shiraz Properties (9 min.)
12-06 – Hands On Example 2 – Merlot Metadata (3 min.)
12-07 – Hands On Example 2 – Merlot Risking (8 min.)
12-08 – Hands On Example 2 – Merlot Properties (8 min.)
12-09 – Hands On Example 3 – Malbec Metadata (2 min.)
12-10 – Hands On Example 3 – Malbec Risking (8 min.)
12-11 – Hands On Example 3 – Malbec Properties (5 min.)
12-12 – Example Portfolio Overview (9 min.)

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