01-01 – Welcome & Course Outline (16 min.)
01-02 – Why Is Risking Important? (5 min.)
01-03 – The Basic Idea (5 min.)
01-04 – A Thought Experiment (5 min.)
01-05 – Why Probability Is Hard (7 min.)
02-01 – The Language of Statistics (3 min.)
02-02 – Marginal Probability (2 min.)
02-03 – Joint Probability (3 min.)
02-04 – Conditional Probability (5 min.)
02-05 – Probability of Success vs Failure (7 min.)
02-06 – Probability Distributions (8 min.)
02-07 – PDFs vs CDFs (4 min.)
02-08 – Monte Carlo Analysis (7 min.)
02-09 – Key Takeaways (2 min.)
02-10 – Probability as Related to Risking (3 min.)
02-11 – Data for Property Distributions (7 min.)
02-12 – Identifying Distributions (8 min.)
02-13 – Area Distribution (7 min.)
03-01 – What Is The Hydrocarbon System? (5 min.)
03-02 – Structure / Trap (6 min.)
03-03 – Seal (8 min.)
03-04 – Reservoir (8 min.)
03-05 – Source Rock Presence & Maturity (8 min.)
03-06 – Migration (7 min.)
03-07 – Considerations For Risking (5 min.)
03-08 – Key Takeaways (5 min.)
03-09 – Non-System Risk Categories (8 min.)
03-10 – Risking by Hydrocarbon System Component (5 min.)
04-01 – What Are Risking Frameworks (6 min.)
04-02 – Risking Prospects (7 min.)
04-03 – Milikov’s Risking Framework (8 min.)
04-04 – Risk Tables & Framework For Structure (10 min.)
04-05 – Framework For Seal (8 min.)
04-06 – Framework For Reservoir Presence (8 min.)
04-07 – Framework For Reservoir Deliverability (7 min.)
04-08 – Framework For Source Presence And Maturity (7 min.)
04-09 – Framework For Migration From Source Kitchen (7 min.)
04-10 – Building Your Own Framework (7 min.)
04-11 – Key Takeaways (2 min.)
04-12 – Two Risk Examples (8 min.)
05-01 – De-Risking And Reducing Uncertainty (3 min.)
05-02 – Example 1: Infill Seismic Lines (4 min.)
05-03 – Example 2: Drilling Offset Well (2 min.)
05-04 – Deciding On Further Data Acquisition (7 min.)
05-05 – Common Risks Across a Portfolio (Part 1) (7 min.)
05-06 – Common Risks Across a Portfolio (Part 2) (8 min.)
05-07 – Summary (3 min.)
06-01 – Volumetric Calculations (7 min.)
06-02 – Volumetrics With Ranges (5 min.)
06-03 – Key Takeaways (3 min.)
06-04 – Using Ranges Correctly (7 min.)
06-05 – Monte Carlo For Ranges (7 min.)
06-06 – Summary of Using Ranges (2 min.)
07-01 – Risked Volumes: The Wrong Way (8 min.)
07-02 – Risked Volumes: The Right Way (5 min.)
07-03 – Monte Carlo For Risks (5 min.)
07-04 – Summary Of Risked Volumetrics (2 min.)
08-01 – Example Scenario: Multiple Zones and Shared Risks (5 min.)
08-02 – Shared vs. Independent Risks (6 min.)
08-03 – Example : Shared vs. Independent Risks (6 min.)
08-04 – Which Interpretation is Correct? (Part 1) (9 min.)
08-05 – Which Interpretation is Correct? (Part 2) (8 min.)
08-06 – Calculating Shared Risk (7 min.)
08-07 – Calculating Shared Risk : Best Practice (4 min.)
08-08 – Calculating Shared Risk : The Wrong Way (4 min.)
08-09 – Key Takeaways (4 min.)
09-01 – Evaluating A Portfolio (7 min.)
09-02 – Probability of Success vs Failure (6 min.)
09-03 – Portfolio Shapes and Sizes (8 min.)
09-04 – Evaluating A Portfolio – Creaming Curves (9 min.)
09-05 – Evaluating A Portfolio – In Small Companies (8 min.)
09-06 – Evaluating A Portfolio – Common Risks (9 min.)
09-07 – Evaluating A Portfolio – Post Failure Analysis (9 min.)
09-08 – Summary of Exploration Portfolios (6 min.)
10-01 – Communicating Risk (10 min.)
11-01 – Three Takeaway Messages (5 min.)
12-01- Tools Required (8 min.)
12-02 – Hands On Examples – Overview (4 min.)
12-03 – Hands On Example 1 – Shiraz Metadata (3 min.)
12-04 – Hands On Example 1 – Shiraz Risking (9 min.)
12-05 – Hands On Example 1 – Shiraz Properties (9 min.)
12-06 – Hands On Example 2 – Merlot Metadata (3 min.)
12-07 – Hands On Example 2 – Merlot Risking (8 min.)
12-08 – Hands On Example 2 – Merlot Properties (8 min.)
12-09 – Hands On Example 3 – Malbec Metadata (2 min.)
12-10 – Hands On Example 3 – Malbec Risking (8 min.)
12-11 – Hands On Example 3 – Malbec Properties (5 min.)
12-12 – Example Portfolio Overview (9 min.)