Cameron Snow

Geological Risking

5:02 Hours
Oil and gas exploration is a risky business, and it is crucial that oil and gas professionals be able to communicate to stakeholders the range of outcomes that are likely given an exploration prospect or portfolio. This course is designed to provide oil and gas professionals with the background knowledge to confidently perform a risk assessment of an exploration prospect. Specifically, you will learn:

• The statistics and methods that are necessary to perform a risk assessment
• How to perform apples-to-apples assessments using a risking framework
• Applying Monte Carlo analysis for determining un-risked and risked volumetrics
• Understanding how to approach portfolios of exploration prospects

This course was designed to be equally applicable to both geoscientists, engineers, and planning staff with a broad range of experience.

Whether you are an experienced wildcatter or are looking to demystify geological risking numbers, this course is for you.

01-01 – Welcome & Course Outline
01-02 – Why Is Risking Important?
01-03 – The Basic Idea
01-04 – A Thought Experiment
01-05 – Why Probability Is Hard

02-01 – The Language of Statistics
02-02 – Marginal Probability
02-03 – Joint Probability
02-04 – Conditional Probability
02-05 – P(success) & P(failure)
02-06 – Distributiona
02-07 – Pdfs vs. Cdfs
02-08 – Monte Carlo Analysis
02-09 – Key Takeaway
02-10 – Probability as Related to Risking
02-11 – Data for Property Distributions
02-12 – Identifying Distributions
02-13 – Area Distribution

03-01 – What Is The Hydrocarbon System?
03-02 – Structure / Trap
03-03 – Seal
03-04 – Reservoir
03-05 – Source Rock Presence And Maturity
03-06 – Migration
03-07 – Considerations For Risking
03-08 – Key Takeaway
03-09 – Other Risks
03-10 – Risking By System Component

04-01 – What Are Risking Frameworks
04-02 – Risking Prospects
04-03 – Milikov’s Risking Framework
04-04 – Risk Tables & Framework For Structure
04-05 – Framework For Seal
04-06 – Framework For Reservoir Presence
4.07 – Framework For Source Presence And Maturity
4.08 – Framework For Migration
4.09 – Building Your Own Framework
4.10 – Key Takeaways And Example

5.01 – De-Risking And Reducing Uncertainty
5.02 – Common Risks In A Portfolio
5.03 – Key Takeaway

6.01 – Volumetric Calculations
6.02 – Volumetrics With Ranges
6.03 – Key Takeaway

7.01 – Risked Volumes: The Wrong Way
7.02 – Risked Volumes: The Right Way
7.03 – Key Takeaway

8.01 – Example Scenario
8.02 – Shared Vs. Independent Risks
8.03 – Common Approaches
8.04 – Calculating Shared Risk
8.05 – Key Takeaway

9.01 – Evaluating A Portfolio
9.02 – Portfolios In Big Companies
9.03 – Creaming Curves
9.04 – Portfolios In Small Companies
9.05 – Considerations In Evaluating Portfolios
9.06 – Key Takeaway

10.01 – Communicating Risk

11.01 – Three Takeaway Messages

12-01- Tools Required
12-02 – Hands On Examples – Overview
12-03 – Hands-On Example 1 – Shiraz Metadata
12-04 – Hands-On Example 1 – Shiraz Risking
12-05 – Hands-On Example 1 – Shiraz Properties
12-06 – Hands-On Example 2 – Merlot Metadata
12-07 – Hands-On Example 2 – Merlot Risking
12-08 – Hands-On Example 2 – Merlot Properties
12-09 – Hands-On Example 3 – Malbec Metadata
12-10 – Hands-On Example 3 – Malbec Risking
12-11 – Hands-On Example 3 – Malbec Properties
12-12 – Example Portfolio Overview

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