Decline Curve Analysis, Reserves and Economics for Shale

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Though there are more sophisticated methods, decline curve analysis is by far the most common. Combined with analysis of the other parts of cash flows, it forms the foundation of acquisitions, drilling programs and all sorts of investment analyses. Nevertheless, its simplicity often misleads its users, and ignorance manifests as expensive mistakes. This course unpacks the science and the practice of decline curve analysis and explores the other aspects of cash flows in a framework designed to result in quality engineering and reliable decisions. Suitable for experienced engineers or, by excluding some of the detailed engineering work, for users looking for an introduction to all of the dynamics that affect the business of oil and gas.

Content duration: (16:37:47)

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    Chapter 1 - Engineering and Economics 2:43:21

    1.01 Introduction (14:43)  Sample Lesson

    1.02 Strategic Context and Geologic Criteria (18:32)

    1.03 More Geologic Criteria (14:43)

    1.04 Building the House (19:29)

    1.05 Using the Tools (12:54)

    1.06 Heuristics (20:36)

    1.07 Creating the Database (26:56)

    1.08 More on Reporting Entities (08:12)

    1.09 Surveying the Landscape (09:02)

    1.10 Working the Database (14:13)

    1.11 Starting Right (04:01)

    Chapter 2 - Decline Curve Analysis 4:24:41

    2.01 Monkey Business (05:07)

    2.02 Making Meaning Visible (28:26)

    2.03 Lies, Damned Lies and Allocation (25:51)

    2.04 Differential Diagnosis (34:35)

    2.05 Three Forces and Daily Data (18:55)

    2.06 Physics and Models (20:39)

    2.07 Drainage Area and Average Wells (31:22)

    2.08 Forecasting Procedures (27:48)

    2.09 Priority of "Priors" (27:10)

    2.10 Daily, Noisy and Evolving Data (26:18)

    2.11 Probabilistic Forecasting (15:27)

    2.12 Working Right (03:03)

    Chapter 3 - Idiosyncrasies of Shale 3:27:15

    3.01 Idiosyncrasies of Shale (14:36)

    3.02 Geologic Components of Shale Production (18:49)

    3.03 Within and Between Geologically Similar Areas (16:48)

    3.04 Introduction to Shale Reserves (14:09)

    3.05 RTA and Simulation (19:39)

    3.06 Reading the Signs of Shale Declines (17:40)

    3.07 Decline Equations, Operational Issues (26:44)

    3.08 GORs and b-factors (18:29)

    3.09 Choosing Analogs (23:03)

    3.10 Economics Unique to Shales (19:39)

    3.11 Painting the Big Picture (17:39)

    Chapter 4 - Economics 4:41:39

    4.01 Economics Introduction (04:00)

    4.02 Predicting Prices (17:10)

    4.03 Benchmark Prices (19:12)

    4.04 NYMEX Strip Prices (10:40)

    4.05 Current Balance of Oil Markets (22:16)

    4.06 Balance of Gas Markets, Oil Differentials (13:51)

    4.07 Gas Differentials (12:35)

    4.08 Natural Gas Liquids (13:36)

    4.09 Determining Differentials (10:42)

    4.10 Calculating Costs (13:35)

    4.11 Operating Costs and LOS (22:52)

    4.12 More on LOS (18:23)

    4.13 Quantification Methods and Program Costs (13:18)

    4.14 Taxes and Wrap-up (10:01)

    4.15 Interpreting a Cash Flow (26:16)

    4.16 Economic Yardsticks (17:47)

    4.17 Treating Risk (35:25)

    Chapter 5 - Quality Control & Transferability 1:20:51

    5.01 Quality Control and Ethics (20:44)

    5.02 Ethics and Quality Control (31:34)

    5.03 Putting the Project Down (15:01)

    5.04 Picking it up Next Year and Ending Right (13:32)