Cameron Snow

Geological Risking

10:33 Hours
This Geological Risking course is tailored for oil and gas professionals seeking to understand and perform risk assessments on exploration prospects confidently. It covers essential statistical methods, including Monte Carlo analysis, to evaluate the probability of success and volumetric outcomes within hydrocarbon systems. The course emphasizes a consistent risking framework for comparing multiple prospects and reducing uncertainties through practical, hands-on applications. Suitable for geoscientists, engineers, and planning staff, it bridges fundamentals through advanced concepts, ensuring accessibility for early career to senior professionals. Communication techniques for effectively conveying risk to stakeholders are also included, supporting better decision making in exploration investments.

Who Should Take This Course
• Reservoir engineers and planning staff
• Exploration managers and decision makers
• Geoscientists evaluating exploration risks
• Professionals seeking risk assessment skills

What You Will Learn
• Apply Monte Carlo analysis for volumetrics
• Communicate risk effectively to stakeholders
• Use risking frameworks for consistent evaluation
• Perform risk assessments using statistical methods

Why This Course Works
• Make rational drilling decisions
• Improve stakeholder communication on risk
• Compare exploration prospects apples-to-apples
• Support company’s long-term exploration health

01-01 – Welcome & Course Outline (16 min.) 
01-02 – Why Is Risking Important? (5 min.)
01-03 – The Basic Idea (5 min.)
01-04 – A Thought Experiment (5 min.)
01-05 – Why Probability Is Hard (7 min.)

02-01 – The Language of Statistics (3 min.)
02-02 – Marginal Probability (2 min.)
02-03 – Joint Probability (3 min.)
02-04 – Conditional Probability (5 min.)
02-05 – Probability of Success vs Failure (7 min.)
02-06 – Probability Distributions (8 min.)
02-07 – PDFs vs CDFs (4 min.)
02-08 – Monte Carlo Analysis (7 min.)
02-09 – Key Takeaways (2 min.)
02-10 – Probability as Related to Risking (3 min.)
02-11 – Data for Property Distributions (7 min.)
02-12 – Identifying Distributions (8 min.)
02-13 – Area Distribution (7 min.)

03-01 – What Is The Hydrocarbon System? (5 min.)
03-02 – Structure / Trap (6 min.)
03-03 – Seal (8 min.)
03-04 – Reservoir (8 min.)
03-05 – Source Rock Presence & Maturity (8 min.)
03-06 – Migration (7 min.)
03-07 – Considerations For Risking (5 min.)
03-08 – Key Takeaways (5 min.)
03-09 – Non-System Risk Categories (8 min.)
03-10 – Risking by Hydrocarbon System Component (5 min.)

04-01 – What Are Risking Frameworks (6 min.)
04-02 – Risking Prospects (7 min.)
04-03 – Milikov’s Risking Framework (8 min.)
04-04 – Risk Tables & Framework For Structure (10 min.)
04-05 – Framework For Seal (8 min.)
04-06 – Framework For Reservoir Presence (8 min.)
04-07 – Framework For Reservoir Deliverability (7 min.)
04-08 – Framework For Source Presence And Maturity (7 min.)
04-09 – Framework For Migration From Source Kitchen (7 min.)
04-10 – Building Your Own Framework (7 min.)
04-11 – Key Takeaways (2 min.)
04-12 – Two Risk Examples (8 min.)

05-01 – De-Risking And Reducing Uncertainty (3 min.)
05-02 – Example 1: Infill Seismic Lines (4 min.)
05-03 – Example 2: Drilling Offset Well (2 min.)
05-04 – Deciding On Further Data Acquisition (7 min.)
05-05 – Common Risks Across a Portfolio (Part 1) (7 min.)
05-06 – Common Risks Across a Portfolio (Part 2) (8 min.)
05-07 – Summary (3 min.)

06-01 – Volumetric Calculations (7 min.)
06-02 – Volumetrics With Ranges (5 min.)
06-03 – Key Takeaways (3 min.)
06-04 – Using Ranges Correctly (7 min.)
06-05 – Monte Carlo For Ranges (7 min.)
06-06 – Summary of Using Ranges (2 min.)

07-01 – Risked Volumes: The Wrong Way (8 min.)
07-02 – Risked Volumes: The Right Way (5 min.)
07-03 – Monte Carlo For Risks (5 min.)
07-04 – Summary Of Risked Volumetrics (2 min.)

08-01 – Example Scenario: Multiple Zones and Shared Risks (5 min.)
08-02 – Shared vs. Independent Risks (6 min.)
08-03 – Example : Shared vs. Independent Risks (6 min.)
08-04 – Which Interpretation is Correct? (Part 1) (9 min.)
08-05 – Which Interpretation is Correct? (Part 2) (8 min.)
08-06 – Calculating Shared Risk (7 min.)
08-07 – Calculating Shared Risk : Best Practice (4 min.)
08-08 – Calculating Shared Risk : The Wrong Way (4 min.)
08-09 – Key Takeaways (4 min.)

09-01 – Evaluating A Portfolio (7 min.)
09-02 – Probability of Success vs Failure (6 min.)
09-03 – Portfolio Shapes and Sizes (8 min.)
09-04 – Evaluating A Portfolio – Creaming Curves (9 min.)
09-05 – Evaluating A Portfolio – In Small Companies (8 min.)
09-06 – Evaluating A Portfolio – Common Risks (9 min.)
09-07 – Evaluating A Portfolio – Post Failure Analysis (9 min.)
09-08 – Summary of Exploration Portfolios (6 min.)

10-01 – Communicating Risk (10 min.)

11-01 – Three Takeaway Messages (5 min.)

12-01- Tools Required (8 min.)
12-02 – Hands On Examples – Overview (4 min.)
12-03 – Hands On Example 1 – Shiraz Metadata (3 min.)
12-04 – Hands On Example 1 – Shiraz Risking (9 min.)
12-05 – Hands On Example 1 – Shiraz Properties (9 min.)
12-06 – Hands On Example 2 – Merlot Metadata (3 min.)
12-07 – Hands On Example 2 – Merlot Risking (8 min.)
12-08 – Hands On Example 2 – Merlot Properties (8 min.)
12-09 – Hands On Example 3 – Malbec Metadata (2 min.)
12-10 – Hands On Example 3 – Malbec Risking (8 min.)
12-11 – Hands On Example 3 – Malbec Properties (5 min.)
12-12 – Example Portfolio Overview (9 min.)

Access All Saga Wisdom Training Content

Already a member? Sign in.